A modest bump does not change the larger pattern: Trump’s approval remains low by recent presidential standards, and poll averages show broad public disapproval.
Donald Trump’s approval rating remains near historic lows, even as Trump saw a small bump in approval in recent polling trends. The newest public opinion polling from recent pollsters shows a narrow band: 30 percent to 40 percent in high-quality surveys tracked by The New York Times, with notable readings of 33 percent in AP-NORC, 34 percent in CNN/SSRS, 35 percent in Reuters/Ipsos and CNN’s poll of polls, and a 38 percent New York Times average as of Aug. 4.
That matters because a tiny upward move can sound like momentum, but the broader picture is still bleak: Trump is underwater by double digits in major polling averages, and several recent surveys show disapproval near or above 60 percent.
The bump is not a recovery
The most useful way to read this moment is simple: Trump may have gained a little ground from his weakest recent numbers, but he has not escaped the low-approval zone.
The New York Times polling average listed Trump at 38 percent approval and 59 percent disapproval on Aug. 4. Its tracker said his approval has hovered around 38 percent for months, even as individual high-quality pollsters recently found him as low as 30 percent and as high as 40 percent.
CNN’s poll of polls showed a similarly rough snapshot. For July 29 through Aug. 3, CNN listed Trump at 35 percent approval and 63 percent disapproval among adults, based on 4,505 respondents and a margin of error of plus or minus 1.5 percentage points.
Those numbers are why the “small bump” needs context. A president can tick up slightly and still remain in historically weak territory, especially when most surveys keep him below 40 percent.
Recent polls cluster in the 30s
The individual polls behind the averages point in the same general direction, even if they differ in exact totals.
The New York Times tracker listed Reuters/Ipsos polling conducted July 29 to Aug. 3 at 35 percent approval and 63 percent disapproval. An Economist/YouGov poll conducted July 31 to Aug. 3 showed 36 percent approval and 60 percent disapproval. TIPP Insights, in polling conducted July 28 to Aug. 1, had Trump at 38 percent approval and 52 percent disapproval.
Other late-July surveys were even rougher. AP-NORC polling from July 23 to 27 showed 33 percent approval and 66 percent disapproval. CNN/SSRS polling from the same period showed 34 percent approval and 66 percent disapproval. Quinnipiac University, also polling July 23 to 27, listed Trump at 32 percent approval and 58 percent disapproval.
That spread is normal in polling. Different firms use different samples, question wording, weighting and field dates. But the common signal is hard to miss: Trump’s support is concentrated in the low-to-high 30s, while disapproval is far higher.
Why averages matter more
Single polls often get attention because they produce clean, dramatic numbers. Averages are usually less exciting, but they are better at showing whether public opinion is actually shifting.
The New York Times polling tracker explicitly notes that poll results can vary by a couple of points because of statistical uncertainty and methodology. That is why one survey at 33 percent and another at 38 percent do not necessarily mean public opinion changed by five points in a few days.
A small bump can be real, noise, or a mix of both. The key question is whether several reputable pollsters show the same movement over time. Right now, the shared trend is not a broad rebound. It is stability at a low level.
That stability has its own political meaning. According to the Times tracker, Trump’s first-year approval ratings in his second term have been unusually steady after an early decline. In other words, the floor has been durable, but the ceiling has also looked limited.
His second term looks weaker
Trump’s current numbers are not only low in isolation. They also compare poorly with other first-term presidential approval patterns tracked by The New York Times.
At Day 562, the Times tracker showed Trump’s second term at a net approval of minus 22 points. It listed President Joe Biden’s first term at minus 18 at the same point, Barack Obama’s first term at minus 1, and George W. Bush’s first term at plus 42.
The comparison to Trump’s own first term is also notable. The tracker showed his second term at minus 22 on Day 562, versus minus 12 at the same point in his first term.
Those comparisons do not predict election outcomes by themselves. Presidential approval is a snapshot, not a forecast. But approval affects political leverage: lawmakers, donors, activists and opponents all watch whether a president appears to be lifting his party or weighing it down.
Issues may be capping support
The polling data also points to issue-specific strain. The New York Times tracker cited a Quinnipiac University poll in which 60 percent of voters said they opposed military action against Iran, a slight uptick since May.
It also cited a CNN/SSRS poll finding that 74 percent of Americans, including about 43 percent of Republicans, said the war in Iran had not been worth the cost in terms of financial burden or American casualties.
Those figures do not prove that Iran policy alone is driving Trump’s approval rating. Presidential approval reflects a mix of economic views, partisan loyalty, issue positions, news cycles and personal perceptions. Still, unpopular policy judgments can make it harder for any president to turn a modest approval bump into sustained recovery.
The tension for Trump is familiar: his base may remain intensely loyal, while the broader electorate remains resistant. Low volatility can be a strength when bad news hits. It can also be a problem if there are few persuadable voters left to win back.
What remains unclear
The next question is whether the slight uptick becomes a trend or fades into polling noise. For that, the important evidence will be repeated movement across several independent polls, not one favorable data point.
Readers should watch three things in the next round of surveys:
- Whether Trump’s average moves above 40 percent, not just whether one poll touches that mark.
- Whether disapproval falls meaningfully, since most recent polls show far more Americans disapproving than approving.
- Whether issue-specific backlash softens, especially on foreign policy and other high-salience fights.
For now, the clean takeaway is that Trump’s approval rating has not collapsed into free fall, but it also has not broken out of its slump. A small bump is politically useful only if it grows into something larger.
The current polling says something more limited: Trump remains near historic lows, with approval generally stuck in the 30s and disapproval still defining the public mood.
Leave a Reply