A narrow poll, a huge fundraising gap and Paxton’s long list of controversies have made Texas a more serious Democratic target. But flipping a statewide race there still means breaking a streak that dates back decades.
Democrats could flip the Texas Senate seat because Ken Paxton is seen as vulnerable, and Larry Sabato says Paxton is “so awful” that Texas state Rep. James Talarico may have a real opening. Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, told CNN the Texas Senate race looks unusually plausible for Democrats after years of false starts.
The argument matters now because Paxton, Texas attorney general and the Republican nominee for a U.S. Senate seat, has turned a normally forbidding Democratic target into a test of candidate quality, scandal fatigue and fundraising muscle.
Sabato’s case for an upset
Sabato’s point was blunt: Texas Democrats have spent decades saying the state was finally ready to turn, and he has usually been skeptical. This time, he said, the combination of Talarico’s profile and Paxton’s liabilities makes the race look different.
In the CNN interview, Sabato referenced a Fox News poll showing Talarico at 51 percent and Paxton at 48 percent. A single poll is not a forecast, but it is enough to explain why national Democrats are paying attention to a state they have repeatedly eyed and repeatedly lost.
Sabato called Talarico a strong candidate, but he did not frame the race as a simple story of Democratic momentum. His analysis centered on Paxton, saying the Republican’s record could repel voters and donors who might otherwise fall in line behind the GOP nominee.
Paxton’s baggage is central
Paxton’s political identity is unusual for a statewide Republican nominee in Texas. He has survived controversies that might have ended other careers, and that survival has made him popular with many conservatives who see him as a fighter.
But Sabato’s argument is that survival in a Republican primary is not the same as strength in a general election. The Hill’s account of his comments cited Paxton’s impeachment by the Texas House, misconduct allegations, a 2015 state securities fraud indictment and an extramarital affair that surfaced in coverage of the impeachment fight.
The impeachment history is especially striking because it was not driven only by Democrats. In 2023, the Republican-controlled Texas House voted 121-33 to impeach Paxton. He was later acquitted by the Texas Senate, allowing him to remain in office.
That split outcome gives both parties material to work with. Paxton allies can say he beat the effort to remove him. Democrats can argue that even many Texas Republicans once viewed his conduct as serious enough to warrant impeachment.
The money gap sharpens it
Sabato also pointed to fundraising as a sign that Paxton’s problems are not just theoretical. He said some donors do not want to be publicly associated with Paxton because of his record.
The numbers reported by The Hill, citing campaign finance records, show why that matters:
- Talarico has raised about $68 million.
- Paxton has raised about $9.2 million.
- Talarico brought in a reported $30 million in the second quarter alone.
Money does not decide every race, especially in a deeply polarized state. But in a state as large and expensive as Texas, a fundraising gap can determine how often voters see a candidate, how quickly attacks are answered and whether a campaign can build a serious turnout operation beyond the biggest metro areas.
For Democrats, the money is also a signal to activists and national groups that the race may be worth more than symbolic investment. For Republicans, it is a warning that Paxton may need help unifying donors after a divisive primary season.
Texas still leans red
The danger for Democrats is familiar: Texas has looked tempting before. Sabato himself described years of calls from Texas Democrats saying this would be the year the party finally broke through statewide.
The state has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994. That fact is the foundation of Republican confidence, and it is why any Democratic lead in an early poll is better understood as an opening than a verdict.
Paxton also did not arrive here by accident. AP News reported that he defeated longtime Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican runoff, and The Hill noted he did so with President Trump’s backing. That victory showed Paxton’s strength with the GOP base, even against an incumbent with deep institutional support.
The question is whether the traits that helped Paxton beat Cornyn can carry him through a general election. A candidate built for a primary electorate can be harder to sell to suburban moderates, independents and voters who dislike Democrats but are tired of scandal.
Why Talarico changes the frame
Talarico’s role in the race is not just that he is the Democrat standing opposite Paxton. Sabato’s analysis treats him as credible enough to take advantage if Paxton falters.
That distinction matters. Democrats have often hoped demographic change, urban growth or Republican missteps would do the work for them in Texas. A competitive statewide race still requires a candidate who can raise money, hold Democratic voters, limit losses in Republican areas and avoid being defined by the opposition.
The early fundraising suggests Talarico has at least solved one piece of that puzzle. The harder test is whether he can turn money and favorable attention into a coalition broad enough to win in a state where Republicans routinely start with a structural edge.
Republicans are likely to argue that Texas voters still prefer conservative leadership and that Paxton’s legal and political fights have already been litigated in public. Democrats will try to make the race a referendum on whether Paxton is too damaged to represent the state in the Senate.
What remains unsettled
The race now sits in an uncertain middle ground. Sabato is not saying Democrats are guaranteed to win Texas. He is saying Paxton may be weak enough to make an outcome that once sounded like wishful thinking genuinely possible.
Several things still need to become clearer: whether more polling confirms Talarico’s narrow edge, whether national Republican money rushes in for Paxton, whether Democratic enthusiasm holds, and whether Paxton can consolidate voters who preferred Cornyn or simply wanted less turmoil.
The larger stakes go beyond one candidate. If Democrats can seriously contest a U.S. Senate seat in Texas, Republicans may be forced to spend money defending terrain they usually expect to hold. If Paxton wins anyway, it will reinforce how hard it remains for Democrats to translate Texas optimism into statewide victory.
For now, Sabato’s analysis captures the real tension of the race: Texas is still Texas, but Paxton is not a generic Republican nominee. That is why Democrats see a shot, and why Republicans cannot treat the seat as routine.
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