The breadth of the projection matters because it suggests Trump’s national approval weakness is not limited to traditionally Democratic states. The figures also underline how state-level estimates can reveal regional differences hidden in a single national number.
Donald Trump’s approval was negative in 47 states and the District of Columbia in a new YouGov and Economist state-by-state projection. In those 47 of 50 states and in D.C., more people disapproved than approved of Trump’s job performance—a broad measure of a president whose national approval numbers have also fallen into negative territory.
The three exceptions were Wyoming, Idaho and West Virginia. The projection offers a sharper view than a national topline alone: Trump retains positive net approval in a small group of strongly Republican states, while the estimated disapproval gap extends across most of the country.
What “underwater” actually means
A politician is described as “underwater” when the share of people who disapprove is larger than the share who approve. Net approval is the difference between those two figures, not the approval percentage by itself.
That distinction matters. A president can have support from a substantial portion of voters and still register negative net approval if opposition is larger. The YouGov/Economist projection found that pattern in all but three states, as well as in Washington, D.C.
State estimates are particularly useful for showing how an overall national mood is distributed. A national average can tell readers whether approval is up or down; a state-by-state model can show whether the movement appears isolated or widespread.
Three states remained positive
According to the projection reported by USA TODAY, Trump’s net approval was positive in Wyoming, Idaho and West Virginia. Wyoming was the strongest of the three at +14, followed by Idaho at +9 and West Virginia at +6.
Those results are consistent with the states’ recent presidential voting histories, but they also show the limits of treating every Republican-leaning state as politically identical. A positive rating in three states does not mean Trump’s standing is equally strong throughout the broader GOP coalition.
The larger takeaway is the contrast between those three positive estimates and the 47 states where the balance tilted negative. For an incumbent president, that spread is politically more consequential than a close national average because it suggests dissatisfaction is reaching beyond a narrow set of geographic strongholds.
D.C., Maryland and Vermont stand out
The largest negative estimate in the projection was in the District of Columbia, where Trump’s net approval stood at -83. Maryland and Vermont followed at -50 each, according to the figures cited by USA TODAY.
None of those places is a surprise ideologically: all are reliably Democratic territory in presidential politics. Still, the scale of the gaps helps illustrate why the national result is not a simple story of uniform disapproval.
Approval is shaped by partisanship, local political culture, economic conditions and the issues dominating a given moment. The map’s most negative areas may be predictable, but the more revealing question is how far negative ratings have moved into states that are less firmly aligned with Democrats.
National polling points the same way
The state projection arrives alongside several national measures showing Trump below water overall. USA TODAY cited a Reuters/Ipsos poll released Aug. 17 in which one in three Americans approved of Trump’s job performance, the lowest result for Trump in that pollster’s tracking since his return to the White House in 2025.
Polling averages cited Aug. 21 also showed more disapproval than approval. RealClearPolitics listed 39.5% approval and 57.2% disapproval; The New York Times average showed 37% approval and 59% disapproval; Silver Bulletin showed 38.2% approval and 57.9% disapproval.
These figures are not interchangeable. They use different surveys, field dates and averaging methods. But the direction is consistent: the state-by-state projection is not an isolated result pointing opposite to the national polling picture.
A projection is not a state poll
The word “projection” deserves emphasis. It does not necessarily mean that a separate, fresh poll was conducted in every state with identical sample sizes. State-level estimates can combine survey responses with statistical modeling and other information to produce readings where direct polling is limited.
That approach can be valuable, especially when it provides a full national map. It also calls for restraint. Small shifts in a model’s inputs can change close state estimates, and an approval figure is a snapshot rather than a forecast of an election result.
The projection measures attitudes about Trump’s job performance, not how every respondent would vote in a future contest. Approval often affects electoral politics, but it is not a substitute for a ballot test, turnout analysis or a campaign’s eventual nominees and issues.
The political meaning is breadth
For Trump and the White House, the difficult signal is the geographic breadth of the negative estimates. A weak number concentrated in a few Democratic states would tell one story. Negative net approval across 47 states and D.C. points to a more expansive challenge, even with positive numbers in Wyoming, Idaho and West Virginia.
The White House did not immediately respond to USA TODAY’s request for comment on Aug. 21. That leaves the administration’s direct response to this particular projection unclear.
What comes next is whether later surveys confirm the same pattern and whether the gaps narrow in politically competitive states. For now, the YouGov/Economist map adds a state-level dimension to a national polling trend: more Americans are estimated to disapprove of Trump’s job performance than approve in nearly every part of the country.
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