The losses are landing hardest in border states where Canadian shoppers, skiers and summer travelers have long supported local businesses. The data also shows how quickly political friction can become a Main Street problem.
Donald Trump is being blamed for costing the United States billions — the “Trump costs America” argument now showing up in tourism data — as Canadian visitors spent less money in the U.S. in 2025 and cross-border travel from Canada has declined. A Joint Economic Committee Minority report released last week says Canadian tourism spending fell from C$22.1 billion to C$18.8 billion, a roughly $2.3 billion hit, while return trips dropped 25 percent, declined for 11 straight months and reached levels not seen since 1972.
The report, produced by Democratic members of Congress’s Joint Economic Committee, ties the decline to Trump-era tensions with Canada, including tariffs, talk of annexation and disrupted trade talks. That attribution is political, but the economic pain it describes is practical: fewer Canadian visitors means fewer hotel bookings, restaurant checks, gas stops and retail sales across the United States.
A tourism drop with real receipts
Canadian travel is not a niche slice of the U.S. visitor economy. Before the latest downturn, Canadians were among the most reliable foreign visitors to the United States because the trip is easy, familiar and often repeatable: weekends in Maine, ski trips in Vermont, shopping runs in New York, baseball trips to Seattle, winter escapes to Florida.
The Joint Economic Committee Minority’s related report says Canadian tourism contributed $20.5 billion to the U.S. economy in 2024 and supported 140,000 American jobs. That makes the 2025 decline more than a diplomatic talking point. It is a hit to employers that depend on steady, nearby customers rather than once-in-a-lifetime international trips.
The spending figures cited in the report show a fall from C$22.1 billion to C$18.8 billion. Currency conversions move with exchange rates, but the report’s headline estimate puts the U.S. loss at about $2.3 billion. For border communities, that kind of drop is not abstract. It can be the difference between extending seasonal hours and cutting shifts.
Where the pain is showing
The JEC Minority release said the decline is harming businesses and communities in every state along the U.S.-Canada border. That matters because those states built habits around Canadian traffic: outlet malls, inns, restaurants, campgrounds, ferry services, ski areas and gas stations all benefit when crossing the border feels routine.
Some of the reported state-level numbers are stark. The JEC’s summary of local coverage cited New Hampshire seeing 30 percent fewer Canadian visitors last summer. In Maine, the same congressional release cited border crossings from Canada down 25 percent and exports to Canada down 18 percent.
Those figures do not mean every business is suffering equally. A hotel in a destination town feels the shift differently than a big-box store outside a crossing point. A ski area may notice fewer Canadian cars in the parking lot, while a restaurant may feel the loss in weekend dinner reservations.
The shared problem is volume. Border economies work on repetition: short trips, family traditions, holiday weekends and shopping habits. When those habits break, businesses do not automatically replace them with travelers from farther away.
Why Trump is being blamed
The report’s central claim is that Canadian travelers are pulling back in response to a chill in the U.S.-Canada relationship under Trump. It points to several flashpoints: tariffs on Canadian goods, repeated breakdowns in trade talks and Trump’s provocative remarks about annexing Canada.
For many Canadians, the issue is not only price. It is sentiment. Travel is discretionary, and discretionary spending is unusually sensitive to national mood. If people feel unwelcome, angry or politically alienated, they can choose Montreal instead of Maine, Vancouver Island instead of Washington state, or a domestic road trip instead of a U.S. shopping weekend.
That is why rhetoric can carry an economic cost even before policy changes are fully measured. Tariffs may show up in prices and business planning. Political insults show up in behavior. Tourism is one of the fastest places to see that behavior because travelers can cancel, postpone or redirect trips with little explanation.
Still, blaming one person for the entire decline is harder than the headline version suggests. Exchange rates, inflation, border wait times, passport rules, airline costs and changing travel preferences can all affect cross-border trips. The report argues Trump-era tensions are a major factor; it does not prove every missing visitor stayed home for the same reason.
A partisan report, useful data
The source of the most pointed claims matters. The Joint Economic Committee is a congressional committee, and the report in question comes from its Democratic side. That means its framing is openly political, especially in how it connects the tourism slump to Trump’s tariffs and comments about Canada.
That does not make the numbers meaningless. Congressional minority reports often use government and industry data to support a political argument. The correct way to read this one is not as neutral academic research, but as a data-backed case about economic damage that Democrats believe is tied to Trump’s approach to Canada.
Supporters of Trump’s trade posture would likely argue that tariffs are negotiating tools meant to protect U.S. industries or extract better terms, not tourism policy. They may also argue that short-term discomfort is acceptable if it produces leverage in trade talks.
The counterargument is that leverage has side effects. When a close ally and top trading partner feels targeted, consumers can retaliate quietly with their wallets. The U.S. may intend tariffs as pressure on governments and industries, but tourists and small businesses can end up in the blast radius.
What businesses can’t easily replace
Canadian visitors are valuable because they are nearby. A family from Ontario can drive to New York or Pennsylvania. A couple from Quebec can spend a weekend in Vermont or New Hampshire. A shopper from British Columbia can cross into Washington for a day and still be home by night.
That proximity creates a different kind of tourism economy than long-haul international travel. Canadian visitors often return year after year, sometimes several times a year. They know the roads, the stores, the hotels and the restaurants. Businesses can plan around that familiarity.
When the relationship sours, the damage can outlast the news cycle. One Vermont inn owner quoted in the JEC release warned that travelers who stop visiting will make new memories and build new traditions elsewhere. That is the deeper risk for U.S. border towns: once routines move, they may not fully come back.
There is also a reputational problem. The United States has long benefited from being an easy, attractive destination for Canadians. If the country starts to feel politically hostile or unpredictable, the cost is not limited to one season’s receipts.
The bigger U.S.-Canada warning
The tourism slump is a reminder that U.S.-Canada relations are not just about prime ministers, presidents and trade negotiators. They are also about people deciding where to spend a weekend and businesses depending on those decisions.
The unanswered question is how much of the decline is temporary and how much reflects a lasting shift in Canadian attitudes toward travel in the United States. If tariffs ease, rhetoric cools and trade talks stabilize, some trips could return quickly. If not, the losses may harden into a new normal for border states.
For now, the political fight is easier to see than the recovery path. Democrats are using the data to argue Trump’s approach is costing American communities real money. Trump allies may dispute the causal link or defend the trade strategy. Businesses on the border have a simpler metric: whether Canadian customers are coming through the door.
The clean takeaway is that cross-border goodwill has economic value. When it erodes, the bill does not arrive only in diplomatic cables or trade statistics. It arrives in empty hotel rooms, quieter restaurants and fewer Canadian license plates in U.S. parking lots.
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