The map is not just another red-versus-blue snapshot. It shows where Trump’s support has held, where it has slipped, and why the battleground numbers matter heading toward 2026 contests.
Donald Trump’s approval rating in every state after 18 months is now laid out in a state-by-state polling map from Civiqs, based on a rolling online tracking poll of 117,851 registered voters across the United States. The July 17, 2026 snapshot, compared with January 20, 2025, when Trump returned to office, shows him 18 months into his second term with familiar red-blue divides intact but thinner margins almost everywhere.
The map shows Donald Trump’s approval rating remains strongest in Republican states, weakest in Democratic states, and negative across major battlegrounds. That matters now because approval is not a forecast, but it is one of the clearest early measures of political drag heading into the 2026 cycle.
The national number is underwater
Nationally, the Civiqs tracker puts Trump at 37 percent approval and 58 percent disapproval, for a net approval rating of minus 21. Net approval is calculated by subtracting disapproval from approval, which makes it easier to compare states with very different political profiles.
The national figure sets the tone for the map. Trump is not simply unpopular in places that were already hostile to him. The more revealing pattern is that his standing has dropped from where it was at the start of his second term in every state tracked in the analysis.
That does not mean every state has moved into anti-Trump territory. It means the cushion he had in many Republican-leaning places has shrunk, while states that were evenly divided or only modestly positive have become more difficult terrain.
Red states still lead, by less
Trump’s best numbers remain in the Republican heartland. Wyoming is his strongest state in the data, with a net approval rating of plus 24. North Dakota follows at plus 18, with West Virginia at plus 16, and Idaho, Alabama and Oklahoma each at plus 14. South Dakota stands at plus 12.
Those are still favorable numbers, but they are far smaller than the margins Trump had when he returned to office. Wyoming was plus 47 on January 20, 2025. North Dakota and Idaho were each plus 34. West Virginia was plus 35.
Kentucky is one of the clearest examples of the shift. It began Trump’s second term at plus 23 in net approval and now sits at exactly zero in the Civiqs snapshot. That is not the same as a Democratic breakthrough, but it is a warning sign about intensity and erosion.
The red-state story, then, is not collapse. It is compression. Trump still leads in much of the conservative map, but with less room for error than he had 18 months earlier.
Swing states carry the risk
The battleground numbers are the sharpest part of the map because they sit closer to the places that decide control of Congress and future presidential contests. In the Civiqs data, Trump is underwater in every major swing state cited in the analysis.
- Arizona: minus 11
- Georgia: minus 21
- Nevada: minus 21
- North Carolina: minus 13
- Pennsylvania: minus 14
- Wisconsin: minus 15
- Florida: minus 12
- Ohio: minus 11
Some of those states were much friendlier to Trump at the beginning of the term. Florida has moved from plus 9 to minus 12. Ohio has gone from plus 8 to minus 11. Nevada shifted from even to minus 21, while North Carolina moved from even to minus 13.
The deficits are not all catastrophic on their own. Campaigns can survive an unpopular national environment if the other side is weak, local candidates are strong, or voters separate their view of the president from down-ballot races. But a president underwater across the whole battleground map is usually a burden, not a boost.
Blue states remain locked in
In heavily Democratic states, the Civiqs map shows less suspense. Hawaii posts the lowest net approval rating for Trump at minus 59. Vermont is at minus 55, Maryland at minus 50, Massachusetts at minus 46 and California at minus 44.
Other blue states remain firmly negative as well. Washington and Oregon are both at minus 40, while New York stands at minus 37.
The pattern in these states is different from the one in Republican areas. In deep-blue states, Trump began his second term with poor numbers and remains deeply unpopular. There is less evidence of a dramatic new break because the opposition was already entrenched.
That distinction matters. The most politically important movement is not in places where Trump was already far underwater. It is in states where he had a positive or neutral starting point and has since slipped below even.
Demographics explain the geography
The Civiqs demographic breakdown helps explain why the map looks so polarized and why certain states are more resistant to Trump than others. Among voters aged 18 to 34, Trump’s approval is 24 percent, while 69 percent disapprove. Among those aged 35 to 49, approval is 29 percent and disapproval is 64 percent.
Independents are also heavily negative, with 30 percent approving and 63 percent disapproving. That is a crucial group because independent voters often decide close statewide races, especially in suburban and battleground areas.
The gender gap is visible too. Women disapprove of Trump by a 64-to-31 margin, while men are more closely divided, with 43 percent approving and 51 percent disapproving.
Education shows another divide. Among postgraduates, Trump’s approval is 25 percent and disapproval is 71 percent. Among non-college graduates, the gap is narrower, with 41 percent approval and 54 percent disapproval. Those splits help explain why Trump performs better in parts of the Republican heartland than in highly educated metropolitan and suburban areas.
The map is not a verdict
Approval polling is a snapshot, not an election result. Civiqs uses a rolling online tracking poll, and the state figures reflect opinion as measured on July 17, 2026. Different pollsters, methods and turnout assumptions can produce different results.
Trump’s supporters can point to the obvious: he remains net positive in a number of Republican states, and approval ratings do not automatically decide House, Senate or governor’s races. Candidate quality, the economy, local issues and the opposition party’s standing can all change the practical effect of a president’s approval rating.
Critics will see a different message. Every state in the analysis has moved downward from January 20, 2025, and several places that began positive are now negative. That is the kind of trend that can make a president’s party nervous even before campaign season fully hardens.
The clean takeaway is that Trump’s political map still looks recognizable, but the margins are thinner. Red states are not as red for him as they were at the start of the term, blue states remain firmly opposed, and the swing states are where the decline could matter most.
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