The latest numbers show broad dissatisfaction with Trump’s job performance and anxiety over the Iran war. For both parties, the poll is less a snapshot than a warning about the political climate ahead.
Donald Trump’s approval rating is near record lows, the latest poll shows, with 37% of Americans approving and 59% disapproving of his job performance. The Economist/YouGov survey, conducted July 10-13 among 1,616 respondents and released in coverage updated July 14, 2026, carries a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points.
Those numbers matter now because weak presidential approval can reshape congressional races, harden doubts about foreign policy and give Democrats a sharper midterm argument while Republicans decide whether to run with Trump or around him.
A 37% number with consequences
Trump’s approval rating is more than a single bad headline. At 37%, the president is sitting in territory that usually signals a broad coalition of dissatisfaction, not just predictable opposition from the other party.
The Economist/YouGov poll found 59% disapproval, meaning Trump is underwater by 22 points in that survey. Even allowing for the 3.3-point margin of error, the gap is large enough to point to a difficult political environment.
The same poll also found that 54% of respondents said America’s standing in the world has worsened since the beginning of Trump’s second term. That detail matters because presidential approval often reflects more than views of personality or party. It can become a shorthand for whether voters think the country is moving in the right direction.
For Trump, the danger is not simply that critics disapprove. It is that voters who might agree with him on some issues may still see the overall job performance as chaotic, costly or ineffective.
Iran is weighing on Trump
Foreign policy appears to be a major drag in the new polling. The Economist/YouGov survey found that 59% of respondents strongly or somewhat disapproved of Trump’s handling of the Iran war.
That disapproval has been relatively steady since the beginning of the conflict, according to the poll details summarized by USA TODAY, and peaked at 64% at the end of May. In other words, the problem does not look like a one-day reaction to a single headline.
A separate Reuters/Ipsos poll released July 13 added another warning sign. It found that 79% of respondents believed U.S. military actions in Iran would “go on for an extended period of time,” while 58% disapproved of U.S. strikes against Iran.
That combination can be politically toxic: voters souring on the action itself while also expecting it to last. Presidents can sometimes withstand unpopular decisions if the public believes there is a clear endpoint. A long, unpopular conflict is harder to sell.
The averages look grim too
One poll can wobble. Poll averages are harder to dismiss, and the broader picture also shows Trump with a deeply negative approval rating.
As of July 14, RealClearPolitics put Trump’s approval average at 41% approve and 56.4% disapprove. The New York Times average showed 39% approve and 58% disapprove. Silver Bulletin listed 40% approve and 56.4% disapprove.
Those averages are not identical, but they point in the same direction: Trump’s approval has been net negative and remains stuck well below 50%. For a president trying to pass an agenda, defend foreign policy decisions and help his party in midterm races, that is a constricted political lane.
There is also a historical caveat. “Near record lows” does not mean the lowest presidential approval ever recorded. According to Cornell University’s Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, Harry S. Truman hit 22% in February 1952. Trump’s own low was 29% in a Jan. 8-12, 2021, poll near the end of his first term.
Low does not mean finished
Trump has survived weak polling before. His political brand has long been unusually resilient with Republican voters, and approval ratings do not automatically predict election outcomes.
The Republican case is straightforward: national polling can miss the intensity of Trump’s base, the importance of district-level races and the possibility that voters may still prefer GOP candidates on taxes, immigration or cultural issues. Republicans can also argue that foreign policy numbers may shift if the administration claims progress or if voters turn their attention back to domestic issues.
Democrats see the same numbers differently. To them, the poll suggests Trump is not merely polarizing but politically vulnerable. A president at 37% approval can become a weight on candidates in competitive House and Senate races, especially if voters associate local Republicans with an unpopular national agenda.
Both readings can be partly true. Trump may keep enough loyal support to dominate Republican politics while still being unpopular enough nationally to damage swing-district candidates.
Midterms sharpen the stakes
The timing is what gives this poll its bite. The Economist/YouGov survey showed Democrats leading Republicans by four percentage points on the congressional ballot, a finding that could matter as both parties prepare for November’s midterms.
Generic ballot numbers are not election results. They do not account for candidate quality, turnout, redistricting, fundraising or the local issues that decide close races. But when a president is unpopular and his party trails on a national congressional measure, strategists pay attention.
For Democrats, the argument writes itself: Trump’s leadership is producing instability abroad and dissatisfaction at home. For Republicans, the challenge is trickier. Running too close to Trump may energize the base but alienate swing voters. Running away from him risks angering the voters who dominate many GOP primaries.
That tension is especially sharp if the Iran war remains central to the news. Foreign policy can fade quickly when the economy or domestic fights take over, but an escalating conflict can keep presidential judgment at the center of the campaign.
The question Republicans face
The unresolved issue is whether Trump’s approval has found a floor or whether it can sink further. A stable but low rating is painful. A falling one can become contagious across a party.
The next round of polling will help show whether voters are reacting mainly to the Iran conflict, to broader frustration with Trump’s second term, or to a combination of both. The distinction matters. A foreign policy dip might be repaired with a ceasefire or a visible success. A broader trust problem is harder to fix.
For now, the latest poll shows a president with a narrow approval base, a large disapproval majority and a foreign policy fight that many Americans do not like and expect to continue. That is why the 37% figure lands with force.
Trump has defied bleak numbers before. But this time, the warning is arriving with midterm control of Congress on the line.
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