The survey points to two political realities at once: Trump’s standing with the broader public has weakened, but his endorsement remains a powerful force inside Republican primaries. That split could shape how GOP candidates position themselves ahead of future elections.
Republicans gave Donald Trump a mixed but politically consequential verdict in a new Marquette Law School national poll conducted May 20-26, 2026. Trump’s overall approval stood at 38%, while approval of his handling of the economy was 30% and approval on inflation and the cost of living was 22%.
Yet Trump remains influential among Republican primary voters: 71% said they would vote for a candidate he endorsed, compared with 20% who said they would support an incumbent Republican Trump opposed. The numbers show why falling national approval does not automatically mean fading power inside the GOP.
National approval keeps moving down
The Marquette Law School Poll found 38% of adults approving of Trump’s job performance and 62% disapproving, for a net approval rating of minus 24 points.
That marked a continued slide from the start of Trump’s second term. In the poll taken from late January to early February 2025, 48% approved and 52% disapproved, a net rating of minus 4 points. Marquette described the movement as gradual month to month but steady over the course of 16 months.
The distinction matters because a national job-approval number measures a broader public than a Republican primary. A president can be unpopular with voters overall while remaining highly consequential in the party electorate that selects nominees.
That is the central tension in these results. The survey does not show a straightforward collapse of Trump’s influence among Republicans; it shows that his coalition remains potent even as his national standing weakens.
Economic ratings are a major drag
The poll’s sharpest warning signs for Trump were on household-cost issues. Just 30% approved of his handling of the economy, down from 32% in Marquette’s April survey.
Approval on inflation and the cost of living was lower still, at 22%, down from 24% in April. On gasoline prices, 19% approved and 81% disapproved in the first Marquette survey to ask that specific question.
Those ratings help explain the overall decline. Voters may judge presidents across a wide range of subjects, but views of prices, fuel costs and personal finances often carry unusual political weight because they are immediate and routinely felt.
Trump performed relatively better, though still below water overall, on border security and immigration. Marquette said border security fell into net-negative territory for the first time in Trump’s second term, while immigration remained net negative as well.
Endorsements still carry real weight
Inside Republican primaries, the picture looked very different. Among Republicans surveyed, 71% said they would vote for a Trump-endorsed candidate in a matchup against an incumbent Republican Trump opposed. Only 20% said they would back the incumbent.
The finding reflects recent GOP primary contests in states including Indiana, Louisiana, Kentucky and Texas, where Trump-backed candidates defeated Republican incumbents whom Trump had opposed, according to Marquette’s summary of the survey.
An endorsement is not the only variable in a primary. Candidate quality, local issues, fundraising, turnout and the state’s political culture all matter. But the poll suggests that Trump’s preference can remain a substantial organizing signal for Republican voters deciding between two candidates from their own party.
That creates a practical dilemma for GOP officeholders who disagree with Trump. A national polling decline may offer some reason for candidates to establish distance on selected issues, while the primary data offer a strong reason not to challenge him too directly.
The MAGA divide explains much
Trump’s primary influence was especially strong among Republicans favorable toward the MAGA movement. In that group, 87% said they would vote for the Trump-endorsed candidate, while 9% said they would support an incumbent Trump opposed.
Among Republicans not favorable to MAGA, the result reversed: 30% said they would back Trump’s preferred candidate and 48% said they would support the incumbent. Another 22% said they would not vote in that hypothetical GOP primary.
Marquette found a similarly large gap in job approval. Among Republicans favorable to MAGA, 93% approved of Trump’s performance as president. Among Republicans not favorable to MAGA, approval was 36%.
The survey estimated that Republicans not favorable to MAGA made up 28% of Republicans in its sample. That leaves Trump with a sizable bloc of skeptics inside the party, but also with a more unified and intensely supportive group that can be particularly important in lower-turnout primary contests.
Poll results need careful reading
The survey interviewed 1,001 adults nationwide from May 20 through May 26. Its margin of error was plus or minus 3.4 percentage points for all adults. The Republican subsample included 413 respondents and had a larger margin of error, plus or minus 5.3 points.
Those margins mean small changes should not be treated as definitive evidence of a sudden shift. The broader trend in Marquette’s repeated national approval measures is more informative than any single one-point or two-point movement.
It is also worth separating the poll’s questions. Trump’s 38% overall job approval is a measure among all adults, while the 71% endorsement figure is among Republicans. They are not competing estimates of the same thing; they describe different electorates and different political tests.
Attention to the recent primaries was limited, too. Only 29% of Republicans said they had heard or read a lot about them. The endorsement question therefore measures a hypothetical choice, not a direct test of how every voter followed a particular contest.
The electoral message is complicated
For Democrats, Trump’s weak ratings on the economy, inflation and gasoline prices offer clear lines of attack. Marquette also found the public saying Democrats were better able to handle the economy and inflation than Republicans.
For Republicans, the findings caution against assuming that a soft national approval rating will loosen Trump’s grip on party nominations. Candidates facing a primary may still see Trump’s backing as a decisive asset, especially where MAGA-aligned voters form an energetic share of the electorate.
The survey’s clearest message is that Trump’s political position cannot be summed up by one number. His approval has declined nationally, and his issue ratings on costs are notably weak. At the same time, the machinery of Republican primary politics still appears highly responsive to his endorsement.
Whether that primary strength can offset broader dissatisfaction in general elections remains unresolved. It will depend on the candidates, the economy, turnout and whether Trump’s standing changes before voters cast their next ballots.
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