Auburn was nearly even with Alabama in the latest public projection for Joey Fleming. One day later, the numbers look dramatically different — but the race is not over.
Auburn is trailing Alabama in a recruiting race for the top player at his position, and the player at the center of the race is Joey Fleming, the four-star No. 1 interior offensive lineman in the 2028 class. In the recruiting battle between Auburn and Alabama, projections cited Today by Auburn Tigers On SI show Alabama at 92% and Auburn at 2%, after Yesterday the Crimson Tide led 21% to 19%.
That is the story behind Auburn falling behind: not a commitment, but a sudden public shift in the recruiting race. For Auburn, the concern is bigger than one percentage graphic. Fleming plays a position the Tigers are trying to rebuild, and Alabama’s surge gives this early 2028 battle a familiar Iron Bowl edge.
A projection swing, not a pledge
The most important caveat is also the easiest to forget: Fleming has not been reported as committed. The new numbers reflect a recruiting projection, not a signed decision, and 2028 prospects are still operating on a long timeline.
Auburn Tigers On SI reported that Alabama’s chances rose to 92% while Auburn dropped to 2%, citing On3/Rivals projections. The same report noted that a Steve Wiltfong prediction appeared to push the public read of the race sharply toward the Crimson Tide.
That kind of movement matters because recruiting coverage is often shaped by credible signals from visits, staff confidence, relationships and industry predictions. It does not mean the race is finished, but it does show where momentum is believed to be sitting right now.
Yesterday’s near-even snapshot, with Alabama at 21% and Auburn at 19%, made this look like a tight regional fight. Today’s version looks much more lopsided.
Why Fleming matters so much
Fleming is listed as a four-star interior offensive lineman and the No. 1 IOL in the 2028 class. That makes him more than a luxury target for Auburn. He is the type of player a program can build around up front if he develops as expected.
Interior offensive linemen rarely drive the loudest national headlines, but they often decide whether an offense can function. For a program trying to stabilize its identity, landing a top-rated blocker would say something about both roster planning and recruiting reach.
The Auburn-focused report also framed the need clearly: after Hugh Freeze’s departure, six of the seven offensive linemen who started for Auburn last season also left, whether through the draft process, NFL free agency or transfers. Kail Ellis was identified as the lone returning offensive lineman from that group.
That does not mean Auburn is empty-handed. It does mean the Tigers have a practical reason to chase high-end line talent well beyond the next signing cycle.
Alabama’s edge is believable
Alabama being ahead for an elite offensive line prospect is not exactly a shock. The Crimson Tide have a long track record of selling linemen on NFL development, championship expectations and a physical offensive identity.
That pitch becomes even more powerful when the player is still early in his high school career. Alabama can sell a long-term development plan before the recruiting field becomes more crowded and before late-cycle drama reshapes the board.
The 92% projection should be read as a strong industry lean, not a final score. Still, it suggests Alabama’s staff has either made a stronger impression or is being viewed by analysts as better positioned at this stage.
For Auburn, that is the frustrating part. A race that looked close turned into one where the Tigers are suddenly chasing their biggest rival from far behind.
Auburn has comeback evidence
The counterargument for Auburn fans is simple: recruiting odds can flip back. Auburn Tigers On SI pointed to the recruitment of four-star 2027 wide receiver Deshawn Hall, who once had a better than 90% chance of landing at Penn State before Auburn made a late push and landed him.
That example does not guarantee anything with Fleming. Different player, different position, different timeline. But it is a useful reminder that projections track momentum more than destiny.
Auburn’s staff under Alex Golesh has also been active in rebuilding the offensive line room. The report mentioned Cole Best, Cole Skinner and Stanton Ramil as short-term pieces, while the 2027 recruiting class has become a major part of the longer-range plan.
The Tigers have landed offensive line commitments including Layton von Brandt, Reed Ramsier, Jaylon Moore and Rance Brown, according to the Auburn report. A player like Fleming would arrive a year later, but he would fit the same broader effort to restock the line.
The 2028 timeline changes everything
Fleming’s class year is the reason this race should be treated carefully. A rising junior still has two full seasons of high school football ahead before college, and that leaves room for visits, coaching changes, development jumps, injuries, scheme shifts and changing relationships.
Recruiting is especially fluid this far out. A school can look like the clear leader in the summer and lose ground by the next spring. Another school can appear out of the picture and become a serious contender after one visit weekend.
That is why Auburn’s 2% number is alarming but not fatal. The Tigers need to get Fleming back on campus, keep the communication steady and show him a credible depth-chart and development story.
Alabama, meanwhile, has the advantage of defending momentum. If the Tide can keep Fleming engaged and make the relationship feel inevitable, today’s projection could harden into something much more difficult for Auburn to disrupt.
The clean read for fans
The honest takeaway is that Alabama has clearly moved ahead of Auburn in the public recruiting forecast for Joey Fleming. A swing from 21% to 92% for the Tide, while Auburn falls from 19% to 2%, is too large to dismiss as noise.
It is also too early to treat it as the end of the story. Fleming is a 2028 prospect, and the distance between a summer projection and a future signing day can be huge.
For Auburn, the next signals matter more than the current percentage alone:
- Visits: Whether Fleming gets back to Auburn and how often.
- Staff contact: Whether the Tigers keep treating him like a priority.
- Line development: Whether Auburn’s rebuilt offensive front shows progress on the field.
- Alabama pressure: Whether the Crimson Tide keep expanding the gap or simply hold an early lead.
Right now, Alabama owns the cleaner path. Auburn owns the need, the rivalry motivation and enough time to change the conversation. That makes Fleming’s recruitment less of a finished race than an early warning for the Tigers: if they want the No. 1 interior offensive lineman in 2028, the comeback has to start well before signing day drama.
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