A new state-by-state tracker finds Donald Trump’s approval rating is higher than his disapproval rating in just three states. The pattern could shape how candidates assess the political environment ahead of the midterm elections, but the figures are estimates rather than separate polls in every state.
Donald Trump’s approval rating exceeds disapproval in only three states — Idaho, West Virginia and Wyoming — according to a map of state-level estimates from The Economist using YouGov polling data. Wyoming posts the strongest net approval at +14, followed by Idaho at +9 and West Virginia at +6.
In the other 47 states and the District of Columbia, the estimates show more people disapproving of Trump’s job performance than approving. The map is a sharp measure of the political challenge facing Republicans before the midterms, while also carrying an important limitation: it is built from polling and statistical modeling, not an independent survey conducted in every state.
Three states remain above water
Net approval is the difference between the share of respondents who approve of a president’s performance and the share who disapprove. A positive number means approval is higher; a negative number means disapproval has the edge.
On that measure, Wyoming is the only state in the tracker where Trump reaches a double-digit positive rating, at +14. Idaho follows at +9, while West Virginia stands at +6.
All three are strongly Republican states, so their placement at the top of the map is not unexpected. What stands out is how limited the positive territory is: even in most states Trump carried in 2024, the estimates put his net approval below zero.
The negative ratings stretch across battlegrounds
The estimates place Trump underwater in several states that could be central to this year’s fight for Congress. Arizona is listed at -23, Georgia at -31, Michigan and Nevada at -27, Pennsylvania at -26, and Wisconsin at -28.
Those state figures do not automatically translate into outcomes in House or Senate contests. Midterms are decided candidate by candidate and district by district, with turnout, local issues, campaign spending and the shape of congressional maps all playing major roles.
Still, presidential standing often influences the environment around those races. Candidates in competitive areas may have to decide how closely to tie themselves to the White House when voters are evaluating both national leadership and local concerns.
The deepest deficits are in blue states
The District of Columbia has the tracker’s lowest estimated net approval, at -83. Vermont and Maryland are next at -50, followed by Hawaii at -48, Washington at -42 and Illinois at -41. Connecticut and Rhode Island are each estimated at -40.
That geographic divide broadly follows the 2024 presidential map: Trump’s strongest ratings appear in reliably Republican territory, while his weakest are in places former Vice President Kamala Harris carried. But the data also suggest that party identification alone does not explain every part of the picture, given the negative estimates in Trump-won battlegrounds.
The result is a map with two political realities at once. Trump retains positive standing among a core set of states, yet his broader job-approval position is weaker than his electoral coalition alone might imply.
These are projections, not 51 polls
The numbers should be read as estimates, not as exact measurements of public opinion in each state. The Economist produces the state-level projections using YouGov polling data and statistical modeling; its tracker also lists FiftyPlusOne and The Economist among its sources.
That approach can provide a useful national map where frequent state-specific polling is unavailable. It also means the outputs depend on the underlying polls, the model’s assumptions and how the data are weighted. The figures can move as new responses are collected and the tracker is updated.
Polls also have a recent history of missing some of Trump’s support. Trump outperformed many pre-election expectations across his three presidential campaigns, a caution against treating any approval estimate as a final forecast of voting behavior.
The White House rejects the premise
The White House pushed back on the significance of the estimates. Spokesperson Davis Ingle told Newsweek that the “ultimate poll” was the November 5, 2024 election, when nearly 80 million Americans elected Trump, and argued that the administration is delivering on jobs, inflation and housing affordability.
That response reflects a core disagreement about what approval polling captures. Supporters may see the 2024 result and the administration’s policy agenda as more meaningful than a tracker’s current topline. Critics are likely to view the map as evidence that dissatisfaction has expanded beyond Democratic strongholds.
Both interpretations can coexist with the same basic fact: approval polling measures sentiment at a particular moment, while elections test whether that sentiment changes turnout and choices among actual candidates.
Why the map matters before midterms
Every voting seat in the House will be on the ballot in the midterms, along with roughly one-third of the Senate. Control of Congress will determine how freely Trump can advance his agenda and whether Democrats gain committee power to investigate federal agencies and administration policies.
The contest is already being shaped by redistricting. Texas Republicans approved new congressional boundaries at Trump’s urging that could help the GOP gain five House seats, while California voters backed a map intended to give Democrats opportunities to offset as many as five seats.
That makes the approval map a useful but incomplete guide. Trump’s standing may affect the national mood, yet the final balance of power will turn on individual districts, candidate quality, turnout and the changing boundaries of the races themselves.
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