Immigration has long been one of Donald Trump’s strongest political issues. A new survey suggests that advantage is weakening, especially among independents, while the White House argues its enforcement agenda remains aligned with voters.
Donald Trump is losing ground on immigration and border security, an issue that has long been central to his political appeal. A new NBC News Decision Desk poll found that 40 percent approve and 60 percent disapprove of his handling of the issue, compared with 49 percent approval and 51 percent disapproval in April 2025.
That moves Trump’s net approval on immigration and border security from minus 2 to minus 20, an 18-point decline. The finding matters because his administration has made tougher border enforcement and mass deportations defining promises of his second term.
The numbers show a sharper deficit
The NBC News Decision Desk survey, conducted among 21,995 adults from January 27 through February 6, puts Trump underwater by 20 points on immigration and border security. The poll’s reported margin of error is plus or minus 2.4 percentage points.
Polls are snapshots, not verdicts. Still, the change from April 2025 is notable because it is larger than the survey’s stated margin of error and because immigration has often been viewed as a relative strength for Trump compared with other policy areas.
The metric is worth reading carefully. Forty percent approval does not mean Trump lacks support for stricter immigration policies, and 60 percent disapproval does not establish why respondents object. It measures public judgment of his handling of the issue at the time of the survey.
Independents appear to be driving change
Marc Trussler, a senior elections analyst for NBC News’ Decision Desk, said independents were behind much of the movement. That group carries particular weight in closely contested elections, where neither major party can rely solely on its base.
Trump’s coalition has included voters who favor a more restrictive approach to border policy and deportations. But an administration can retain broad agreement on its stated goal while losing support over execution, tone, individual enforcement actions or the wider consequences of those actions.
That distinction may be politically consequential. Immigration politics are often framed as a simple choice between enforcement and openness, yet voters can simultaneously support border security and object to particular tactics or outcomes.
Enforcement has become the political test
Trump campaigned on securing the border, expanding deportations and carrying out what he described as the largest mass deportation operation in U.S. history. His administration has continued to present those goals as a response to what it calls an immigration crisis inherited from the prior administration.
Recent immigration enforcement operations have also drawn heightened scrutiny. Newsweek reported that two fatal shootings involving federal immigration officers in Minneapolis in January prompted public backlash: the deaths of Alex Pretti on January 24 and Renee Nicole Good on January 7.
The circumstances, investigations and public interpretations of such cases matter because immigration enforcement is no longer only an argument about policy targets or border-crossing numbers. It is also an argument about how federal power is used inside U.S. communities and how agencies are held accountable.
The White House rejects the premise
Abigail Jackson, a White House spokeswoman, told Newsweek that Trump was elected on a promise to pursue mass deportations and said the administration is working to fulfill that commitment. She defended Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers as professional and said their work protects Americans from what the administration describes as criminal illegal aliens.
The White House’s position is that the administration is delivering on an election mandate, not retreating from it. Supporters may see tougher enforcement as overdue and judge the policy primarily by border control and deportation results.
Critics, meanwhile, argue that a security-first agenda must be evaluated alongside due process, the treatment of families and communities, and the conduct of federal agents. The polling shift does not resolve those arguments, but it suggests the administration’s approach is facing broader resistance than it did earlier in its term.
Other surveys point in a similar direction
A Reuters/Ipsos poll cited by Newsweek found 39 percent approval and 53 percent disapproval of Trump’s performance on immigration. That survey, conducted among 1,139 U.S. adults from January 23 to January 25, reported a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points and showed approval slipping from 41 percent in its previous reading.
Different polls use different wording, field dates and methodologies, so their percentages should not be treated as interchangeable. Their shared direction, however, is more informative than any single result: Trump’s immigration ratings appear to have softened.
There is also countervailing evidence. An InsiderAdvantage national survey reportedly placed Trump’s overall approval rating at 50 percent, his highest level in weeks. Overall approval and approval on immigration measure different things, but the contrast is a reminder that public opinion can be mixed and volatile.
Why this issue remains pivotal
For Trump, immigration is more than one line item in a polling crosstab. It is a core argument about leadership, public safety, the border and the limits of government. A sustained decline on that issue would remove some of the political insulation that comes from being trusted on a signature priority.
For Democrats and critics of the administration, the numbers may indicate an opening to challenge Trump on an issue where Republicans have often held an advantage. But they would still need to persuade voters that they support credible border management as well as civil-liberties protections.
The next polls will show whether this is a temporary reaction to intense news coverage or a more durable reassessment. For now, the clearest takeaway is narrower: Trump’s immigration and border-security approval has fallen substantially since April 2025, and the group most likely to decide close elections appears to be part of the shift.
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