Americans are still judging the economy through grocery bills, rent and medical costs, not just inflation charts or market gains. That gap is becoming a political problem for Trump and Republicans.
Donald Trump’s approval rating on the economy fell to an all-time low, the finding is based on two polls, and this article explains what the polls suggest about public views of Trump’s handling of the economy. The Trump approval rating slide matters now because voters are turning toward the 2026 midterm elections with cost-of-living frustration still shaping how they judge the country.
The two surveys, from CNBC and The Washington Post-Ipsos, point to the same political problem: many Americans are not crediting Trump for economic progress when their own budgets still feel squeezed.
The warning in the numbers
The CNBC All-America Economic Survey found Trump’s overall approval at 40 percent, with 59 percent disapproving. On the economy, his approval was lower: 38 percent approved and 60 percent disapproved.
That produced a net economic approval rating of minus 22 in the CNBC data, described as the lowest mark of Trump’s political career under that measure. The poll was conducted July 8-12 among 1,000 registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
The Washington Post-Ipsos poll showed an even weaker reading. It found Trump’s overall approval at 37 percent, with 61 percent disapproving. On his handling of the economy, 33 percent approved and 65 percent disapproved.
That survey, conducted July 8-13 among 2,648 U.S. adults, had a margin of error of plus or minus 1.9 percentage points. In that polling series, Trump’s economic approval reached a new low.
Voters still feel priced out
The numbers help explain why positive economic indicators may not be changing minds. Inflation has eased from its peak, and financial markets have shown strength, but voters often judge the economy by what happens at checkout, on rent day and when medical bills arrive.
CNBC’s survey found 61 percent of respondents pessimistic about the current state of the economy and its future. Only 25 percent said they were optimistic.
That pessimism is not abstract. The survey found 47 percent of Americans cutting back on essentials such as food and medical care, up from CNBC’s April survey. Roughly two-thirds said they were reducing nonessential spending such as dining out and entertainment.
For a White House, that is the hard part: a lower gas price or a better inflation report may not erase months or years of higher household costs. Voters do not experience the economy as a chart. They experience it as a monthly squeeze.
The midterm risk is real
Economic approval is one of the most important political gauges for a president because it cuts across ideology. Even voters who do not follow Washington closely tend to know whether they feel better or worse off than they did before.
That makes the latest polling dangerous for Republicans heading toward the 2026 midterms. If voters remain sour on the economy, they may be more open to punishing the party in power, especially in competitive House districts and Senate races.
But the polls also contain a warning for Democrats: unhappiness with Trump does not automatically equal enthusiasm for the opposition. CNBC found Democrats leading Republicans by only 4 points, 49 percent to 45 percent, on preference for control of Congress.
That suggests a deeply divided electorate rather than a clean wave forming. Voters may dislike the economy and still hesitate over which party they trust to fix it.
The White House pushes back
The White House rejected the idea that Trump’s economic record is failing voters. Spokesman Davis Ingle told Newsweek that “no other President in history has accomplished more for the American people than President Trump.”
Ingle said Trump is working to create jobs, lower inflation and improve housing affordability, arguing that the administration’s “historic progress” is only beginning to take effect.
That is the core argument Trump’s team is likely to make: conditions are improving, the agenda needs more time, and voters should judge the direction of the economy rather than the pain left over from earlier price increases.
The challenge is that polling suggests many Americans are not yet buying that case. If people believe they are falling behind, official signs of improvement can sound detached from daily life.
Why the two polls matter
One poll can be an outlier. Two major surveys taken during the same period and pointing in the same direction are harder to dismiss.
The CNBC poll surveyed registered voters, while the Washington Post-Ipsos poll surveyed U.S. adults. Those are different samples, so the topline numbers should not be treated as identical measures. Still, both found Trump underwater overall and weaker on the economy than on his general job performance.
That pattern matters. It indicates the economy is not merely one issue among many dragging on Trump’s approval. It may be the issue where voters are most dissatisfied.
The Washington Post-Ipsos survey also found 48 percent expecting the economy to worsen over the next year. Another finding from the survey showed 59 percent saying people like them do not have a good chance of improving their standard of living.
What remains unsettled
Polls are snapshots, not predictions. They can show public mood, but they cannot say whether voters will still feel the same way in November 2026.
A lot could shift before then: inflation, wages, interest rates, housing costs, gas prices, employment numbers and the candidates at the top of local races. A single strong jobs stretch or a visible drop in household costs could give Trump and Republicans a better argument.
The reverse is also true. If families keep cutting back on groceries, health care or routine spending, the administration’s economic message may struggle no matter what the macro data says.
For now, the clearest takeaway is that Trump’s economic brand is under pressure at a politically sensitive moment. The public is not just asking whether the economy is growing. Many voters are asking whether it is working for them.
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