The numbers point to a competitive race, but the poll also raises questions about party loyalty, independents and whether Texas Democrats can finally break a decades-long statewide losing streak.
James Talarico leads Ken Paxton by 5 points in a new Texas Senate poll from Texas Public Opinion Research, 45% to 40%, putting the Texas Senate race back in the national spotlight. The survey shows a competitive Senate race in Texas at a moment when Democrats are looking for a rare statewide opening and Republicans are trying to move past a bruising primary.
Talarico, a Democratic state representative from Austin, is ahead of Paxton, the Republican attorney general, in the latest TPOR survey of 1,048 likely voters conducted July 15-17. The result matters because Texas has not elected a Democrat statewide in more than 30 years, yet this poll suggests the U.S. Senate race from Texas is not behaving like a routine Republican hold.
A lead with real caveats
The top-line number is simple: Talarico 45%, Paxton 40%. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points, according to the poll, which means the result should be read as a narrow advantage rather than a settled race.
Still, the poll is notable because it gives Talarico his largest lead in any public survey taken during the general election period, according to The Texas Tribune’s report on the data. Previous polling after Paxton secured the Republican nomination had shown a tighter contest, with neither candidate clearing 50%.
TPOR’s earlier post-runoff poll showed Talarico ahead 47% to 44%. A New York Times/Siena survey in June found the race tied at 47%. The new poll, then, does not stand alone as the only sign of competitiveness, but it is the clearest public signal yet that Paxton has not fully locked down the race.
That is why the finding is politically useful and politically risky at the same time. Democrats will see evidence of an opening. Republicans will see a poll they can challenge, especially because TPOR’s leadership and funding context invite scrutiny.
The crosstabs are the story
The most striking part of the poll is not just that Talarico leads. It is where that lead appears to come from.
TPOR found Talarico ahead among voters without a college degree, 45% to 36%. That is unusual in modern Texas politics, where non-college voters have generally leaned Republican, sometimes decisively.
For comparison, exit polling cited by The Texas Tribune found Republican Sen. Ted Cruz beat Democrat Colin Allred by 18 points among non-college-educated Texans in 2024. In 2018, even when Beto O’Rourke came close to Cruz statewide, Cruz still won that bloc by 6 points.
That is why this crosstab will get attention from campaign professionals. If Talarico is truly competitive with non-college voters while also holding traditional Democratic constituencies, the race looks meaningfully different. If that number is an outlier, the top-line lead may be softer than it looks.
Independents are breaking hard
The poll also shows Talarico with a large advantage among independents: 43% to Paxton’s 23%, with 29% still undecided. Among self-described moderates, Talarico’s lead is even wider, 54% to 20%.
Those numbers help explain why a Democrat could lead in a state that Donald Trump carried in recent presidential elections. The survey sample included respondents whose 2024 vote leaned Republican overall: 53% said they voted for Trump and 42% said they voted for Kamala Harris.
That sample was still slightly bluer than Texas’ 2024 electorate, according to the Texas Tribune account, but not by enough to dismiss the result on that basis alone. The bigger question is whether independents stay this cool toward Paxton once the campaign intensifies and partisan messaging hardens.
Republicans are expected to argue that Talarico’s progressive positions make him a poor fit for Texas. Democrats are likely to counter by focusing on Paxton’s vulnerabilities, populist economic themes and Talarico’s fundraising strength.
Paxton has a loyalty problem
Paxton’s 40% vote share is the lowest he has received in a public poll since the runoff, according to the Tribune’s review. The TPOR poll found Talarico winning 7% of self-described Republicans, while another 12% of Republicans were undecided.
That is a warning sign for Paxton, but it is also a possible source of future growth. Some Republicans who are currently undecided may return to the GOP column as the general election becomes more clearly partisan.
The poll found only 1% of self-identified Democrats backing Paxton, with 6% undecided. In other words, Talarico’s party base appears more consolidated in this survey than Paxton’s does.
That may reflect lingering divisions from the Republican primary. Paxton defeated Sen. John Cornyn in a May 26 runoff, ending a bitter intraparty fight. Republicans are betting that time, money and anti-Democratic messaging will bring their voters back together.
Why Republicans still have reason
Texas remains Texas. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates the race as Lean Republican, and that rating reflects more than one poll. Democrats have spent decades trying to crack the state’s statewide offices and falling short.
Paxton also has a path inside the same data that looks troubling for him. Among undecided voters, 19% said they leaned toward the Republican, while 10% leaned toward Talarico. Two-thirds said they were truly on the fence.
That means Paxton may have more room to gain if undecided Republicans and right-leaning independents come home. The GOP argument is straightforward: once voters focus on party control of the Senate and on Talarico’s ideology, the fundamentals will reassert themselves.
There is also a credibility fight around the poll itself. TPOR describes itself as nonpartisan, but it is directed by Democratic strategist Luke Warford. Warford is also a founding partner of Agave Democratic Infrastructure Fund, a PAC focused on building Democratic campaign infrastructure in Texas. Conservatives have pointed to those ties in questioning the survey.
Texas Democrats see an opening
For Democrats, the poll is not just about one Senate race. It fits a broader hope that Trump’s approval ratings, Paxton’s ethical baggage and a younger Democratic messenger could combine into the rare statewide breakthrough they have chased for years.
The same TPOR poll found other statewide races closer than Texas Republicans would prefer. Republican Gov. Greg Abbott led Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa 45% to 42%. In the attorney general race, Republican state Sen. Mayes Middleton led Democratic state Sen. Nathan Johnson 39% to 38%, which was within the poll’s margin of error.
Those numbers do not mean Democrats are favored statewide. They do suggest a more unsettled political environment than the one-party pattern Texas voters have known for a generation.
The key word is unsettled. In all three contests, undecided voters remain a major factor. In the Senate race, 14% of voters said they were unsure, leaving plenty of room for advertising, debates, national events and partisan pressure to reshape the race.
The takeaway before early voting
Early voting is set to begin Oct. 19, leaving less than 12 weeks from the poll’s late-July field dates for both campaigns to define the race. That is enough time for a narrow lead to grow, vanish or reverse.
The poll gives Talarico a real talking point: he is ahead of Paxton in a public survey and showing strength with independents, moderates and some groups that Democrats do not usually win in Texas. It gives Paxton an equally clear warning: Republican consolidation is not automatic.
The smartest read is not that Texas has suddenly turned blue. It is that this Senate race has become competitive enough that neither party can treat the outcome as prewritten.
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