The poll captures a striking break from decades of broad U.S. support for Israel. It also shows how much of the public remains uncertain about one of the war’s most charged accusations.
A new AP-NORC poll lands on one of the most explosive questions in American foreign policy: whether Israel’s war in Gaza amounts to genocide against Palestinians.
The answer from the public is not a consensus. It is a fracture — and, just as telling, a large pool of Americans who say they do not know enough to judge.
The finding driving the debate
According to the survey by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, about one-third of U.S. adults say Israel has committed genocide against Palestinians during the war in Gaza.
About 2 in 10 say Israel has not committed genocide. Roughly half say they do not know enough to say.
That last number matters. The poll is not only a measure of condemnation. It is also a measure of uncertainty around a war that has produced staggering civilian suffering, fierce disagreement over facts and language, and deep political consequences in the United States.
The accusation of genocide has been made by some human rights organizations and rejected by Israel and the U.S. government. The AP-NORC poll measures public belief, not a legal ruling.
Democrats have moved sharply
The clearest shift is inside the Democratic Party.
AP-NORC found that roughly half of Democrats believe Israel has committed genocide against Palestinians. The poll also shows Democrats increasingly dissatisfied with the U.S. posture toward both sides of the conflict.
About 58% of Democrats say the United States is too supportive of Israelis, up from 45% in an AP-NORC poll from January 2024. About 62% say the U.S. is not supportive enough of Palestinians, up from 49% in that earlier poll.
The movement is not limited to young Democrats, although younger voters have often been the most vocal critics of Israel’s war conduct. AP-NORC found older Democrats are also shifting: 57% of Democrats over 45 now say the U.S. should do more for Palestinians, compared with 39% two years ago.
Republicans remain more supportive
Republicans continue to stand more firmly behind Israel, but the poll shows some signs of strain there, too.
Only 13% of Republicans describe Israel’s actions as genocide, according to AP-NORC. But younger Republicans are more likely than older Republicans to say so: about 2 in 10 Republicans under 45 agree with the genocide description, compared with about 1 in 10 Republicans ages 45 and older.
Overall, 60% of Republicans say U.S. support for Israel is about right. About 2 in 10 say the U.S. is too supportive of Israelis.
One notable change: the share of Republicans who say the U.S. is not supportive enough of Israel has fallen from 39% in 2024 to 15% in the new poll. That suggests GOP support for Israel remains strong, but the appetite for even more U.S. backing has cooled.
Jewish Americans are not monolithic
The survey included 1,022 Jewish adults, allowing AP-NORC to report more reliable estimates for a group whose views are often discussed broadly but not always measured carefully.
Among Jewish adults, 30% say Israel has committed genocide, while 49% say it has not. That split is important because it complicates any simple story about American Jewish opinion moving in one direction.
Jewish Democrats, in particular, appear more critical of U.S. support for Israel. AP-NORC found 51% of Jewish Democrats say the United States is too supportive of Israelis.
The poll also shows a distinction between views of Israel’s initial response to Hamas and its continuing operations in Gaza. About three-quarters of Jewish adults said Israel’s immediate response was justified, but only about 4 in 10 said the same of its ongoing military operations.
Initial response, ongoing war
That distinction may be one of the most politically important pieces of the poll.
Many Americans still see Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack as the starting point of the current war. The attack killed about 1,200 people in Israel, mostly civilians, and 251 hostages were taken into Gaza.
But nearly three years of war have changed how many Americans view Israel’s conduct. More than 73,000 Palestinians have died in Gaza, according to the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry, which does not distinguish between civilian and militant deaths. AP reported that the figure includes more than 1,000 people killed since the beginning of the latest ceasefire.
AP-NORC found that many Americans — about 4 in 10 — say they do not know enough to judge whether Israel’s immediate military response or its ongoing operations were justified. Among those who do offer an opinion, most say the initial retaliation was justified, while a majority say Israel’s current actions are not.
Why this poll matters now
For decades, support for Israel was one of the more stable points of bipartisan agreement in Washington. That stability is now under pressure.
The poll suggests the old consensus is being replaced by a more polarized and more conditional view. Republicans are still broadly supportive. Democrats are increasingly critical. Younger Americans in both parties appear more skeptical than older ones.
This shift comes as U.S. leaders face pressure from multiple directions: from pro-Israel voters who see Israel as a critical ally under threat, from Palestinian rights advocates who want stronger limits on U.S. support, and from voters who are exhausted by the war but unsure how to assess competing claims.
It also arrives in an election environment where primaries, campus politics, protest movements and foreign policy votes can turn Israel and Gaza into domestic political tests.
The takeaway is uncertainty
The headline number is stark: about one-third of U.S. adults believe Israel has committed genocide against Palestinians.
But the poll’s deeper message may be the scale of public uncertainty. Roughly half of Americans say they do not know enough to answer that question, even as the issue drives protests, campaign fights and pressure on elected officials.
That combination — sharper criticism, partisan divergence and mass uncertainty — is what makes the AP-NORC findings politically potent.
Americans are not simply changing their minds about Israel. Many are still trying to decide what they believe, and the answer is increasingly shaping U.S. politics.
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